Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod)

SISMod to estimate the effects on the household economy and food security of three different scenarios: a continuation of the economic crisis, a drought, and the combination of the two in the years 2017/2018.

An analysis of project results led by the Food Security Climate and Resilience (FoodSECuRE) unit highlights the crisis situation of poor agricultural communities in Zimbabwe, driven by El Niño weather patterns of 2015/2016.

What does the conflict induced public sector crisis mean for food security in Yemen?

Application of Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod) to estimate the number of Food Insecure people in North-East Nigeria.

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The Nigerian economy in turmoil - what does it mean for food insecurity in the conflict-affected states of the North-East? This study based on data from 2016 Emergency Food Security Assessment tries to merge secondary data analysis to provide insights for the close future.

Application of Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod) to measure Ebola’s economic impacts on hunger.

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Since March 2014, Ebola has swept West Africa. Although this unprecedented epidemic has been slowing down – Liberia was declared Ebola-free in May 2015 – its impact continues to be felt not only as a health crisis, but also as an economic crisis that is severely hampering already fragile economies.
The focus of responses is shifting from ending the epidemic to rebuilding the countries.

This book was jointly prepared by WFP and FAO research teams. It presents the case study of Pakistan. The methodological and analytical approach of the SISMod are presented together with extensive baseline information on the vulnerability situation of Pakistan by livelihood and income groups and geographical areas. The results of the simulation of the combined impacts of high food price crisis and climate shocks (floods) provide guidance to policymakers on the most affected areas and population groups. 

Regarding potential impacts of an earthquake in Kathmandu Valley (KV), three loss scenarios were created by integrating the estimates and assumptions from different studies on KV’s quake. The simulation results provide estimates on the extent to which the population would be affected by the earthquake in terms of food assistance needs.

Nepal case study demonstrates the consistency of SISMod simulation results with expected impacts of past shocks. The study focuses on trend analysis and sub-group analysis on quantitative estimates of SISMod on the past and current food security trend from year 2005 and up to currently, 2013. With special focus on the 2008/09 winter drought, scenario is built to simulate the instant impacts of a particular shock. 

The Niger case study is a presentation document which gives a brief explanation on the theoretical background and illustrates the application of SISMod. This exercise is aimed to validate the model by comparing the simulation results to the historical market and economic data trend and the knowledge of local experts who have good understanding of the local situation.

The study is composed of two main parts: the vulnerability profile of the country and the shock simulation model. The first assesses the vulnerability context of Pakistan using baseline data (i.e. without shocks, identifies the areas and livelihood groups that are most vulnerable to potential shocks and describes the food security situation of households measured in terms of caloric intake. This vulnerability profile provides contextual information for the modeling by highlighting factors that make household sensible to market and climate shocks. Part two develops a framework for the Shock Impact Modeling System (SIMS) which estimates the impact of the recent market and climate shocks on household food consumption in Pakistan. The simulation results show which population groups are most affected by previous shocks and which ones are likely to be most affected by future shocks.