Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod)

The Food Security Analysis and Trends Service (VAM) of the World Food Programme (WFP) and the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) initiated a joint project in 2009 and developed the Shock Impact Simulation Model (SISMod) to assess the food security situation in low-income food deficit countries (LIFDCs). 

SISMod is a macroeconomic modelling system which brings new possibilities to allow timely quantitative assessments on the ex-ante and ex-post impact of various types of shocks (market, economic, climatic) on livelihood and food security. It identifies and profiles the vulnerable groups, and estimates to what extent they are in need. SISMod provides early estimates of the impacts of shocks before field assessments are carried out, informing the initial development of response scenarios.

SISMod was recognized internally at FAO and WFP and externally by other governmental and non-governmental institutions. For example, it was used to model the crisis of Ebola in Western Africa and the conflict in Yemen in 2015; also, a SISMod training was held in Pakistan in 2014 to build the capacity of government ministries in food security analysis.

SISMod is converted from a statistical analysis system (SAS) model to a user friendly Excel/Access platform for easy use at country office level. The model currently covers Bangladesh, Guinea, Liberia, Nepal, Niger, Pakistan, Sierra Leone, Tajikistan and Yemen, and will be expanded to other shock-prone countries.